How picks are graded
Moneyline (ML)
🔥 TakeModel's implied win % differs from Vegas by ≥10 points
📊 Lean7–10 point implied probability difference
Total (Over/Under)
🔥 TakeModel projects ≥2.0 runs from the Vegas line
📊 Lean1.5–2.0 runs from the Vegas line
Run Line (−1.5)
🔥 TakeModel projects favored team winning by 2.5+ runs
No leanRun line is high-variance — only flagged when edge is strong
First 5 Innings (F5)
🔥 TakeModel projects ≥1.5 runs from the Vegas F5 line
📊 Lean1.0–1.5 runs from the Vegas F5 line
F5 model uses starter quality only — bullpen excluded by design. Odds lock at first pitch for all bet types.